例:Sensitivity 90%, Specificity 90%, Likelihood ratio = 9
Prior probability = 0.2 (Odds 0.25)
Posttest probability = 0.2 x 0.9/[0.2 x 0.9 + (1 - 0.9) x (1 - 0.2)] = 0.69
Posttest Odds = 0.25 x 9 = 2.25
Posttest probability = 2.25 / (1 + 2.25) = 2.25 / 3.25= 0.69
Notes:
感度、特異度ともに90%の検査を事前確率0.2の場合に適用するとPPVは0.69になる。